A Winter Storm Is On The Way

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It’s a bit humid this morning across the Permian Basin. West of the Pecos River, dry air is allowing temperatures to fall into the 30’s and 40’s. Most of us are waking up to temperatures in the mid 50’s this morning. Winds are currently out of the southwest at 5-15mph.
Expect a big warm up this afternoon. Highs will climb into the upper 70’s and even a few spots in the lower 80’s.
Winds will continue out of the southwest at 10-15mph in the afternoon.

A strong cold front will arrive later tonight. It currently looks like the front will arrive around midnight and surge through the entire area by late Tuesday morning.
Expect strong north winds and cold temperatures in the wake of the boundary. I fully expect the high for Tuesday to occur shortly after midnight. Temperatures will be in the 30’s and 40’s through the day on Tuesday. The strong north winds (20-30mph with higher gusts) will make it feel much colder.

With cold air in place across the area Tuesday through Thursday, our attention will turn to an upper level disturbance that will propagate over the southwestern United States and into West Texas and New Mexico on Wednesday.
As lift increases ahead of the approaching storm, isentropic upglide will lift the warmer nose of air over the cold dome at the surface, initiating precipitation. Initially the precipitation type will be rain, with freezing rain and some snow above 6000 feet in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.
As the evaporative cooling kicks in and cools the entire atmospheric column, expect the precipitation type slowly transition from rain over to freezing rain and then eventually over to snow across much of the region.
How long this cooling process takes, will ultimately determine how much snow we will see. However, I suspect that most of the area will have a hard time seeing the ground cool enough to allow for any accumulation. The one exception to this might be along and south of I-10, where the transition will occur first and the air will be coldest for the longest period of time. Locations from Fort Stockton to Van Horn and south in the Davis Mountains will see the potential for an inch or two of snow accumulations, which may have an impact on travel, especially west of the I-10/I-20 intersect.
Those with travel plans across the area from Wednesday into Thursday should monitor this storm closely and adjust your travel accordingly.

It appears that the precipitation will taper off from north to south through the day on Thursday, wrapping up entirely for most by Thursday night.

Much colder air will remain over the region during the middle of the week. Highs will be in the 30’s and lows will be in the 20’s and 30’s. Make sure you have the heavy coats handy!
By Friday, the upper level storm mentioned above will be exiting the area and high pressure will begin to build in its wake. Highs will bounce back into at least the upper 50’s by Friday and will be in the 60’s this weekend.