Hot conditions are expected over the next couple of days. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. However, changes are in the offing beginning Friday night, including a chance of rain and cooler temperatures.
Today will consist of partly cloudy skies and hot temperatures. Highs will be in the neighborhood of 100 degrees. The record for today is 102, which has stood since 1930. We will get very close to this today, with many locations in the Permian Basin expected to reach 101 or perhaps even tie the record.
Further southwest, high temperatures will reach 103 to 105 in Pecos and along the Rio Grande. Even the mountains will see highs in the 90’s.
On Thursday, the record high temperature stands at 99. It appears that we will easily break this record on Thursday afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny and winds will be out of the south at 5-15mph.
On Friday, the ridge of high pressure that is responsible for the heat will begin to break down as a low pressure system on the west coast begins to flatten it out. At the same time, a tropical system in the Pacific will be moving north over Baja, Mexico. This system looks to be drawn north into far West Texas and New Mexico. I have kept 20-30% rain chances in the forecast beginning Friday. These rain chances will continue through the weekend into next week.
The current impact from the tropical system mentioned above will become more evident in the next couple of days, when models are better able to handle its motion.
Regardless of how much rain it drops, temperatures will still be able to cool off. Expect highs in the lower 90’s this weekend and early next week.
Should the tropical low move closer to the Permian Basin, rain chances will have to be bumped up and temperatures would have to be trimmed downward.